Market Musings

9/25 Oil Daily (the $104 target for mid-Sep was not reached.. instead oil turned down confirming global slowing. (click to enlarge)

Market Philosophy: Trust what you see until what you see changes. Worry less about the why's; they will reveal themselves in due time.

Getting Started

In 2008, a friend suggested that I would enjoy analyzing stocks.  I had a love of research, a background in astrology and a knack for seeing the larger patterns in mountains of data.  In May, I identified the topping of Exxon and in July, I called for major market moves for September 30, 2008 (http://forum.astro.com/cgi/forum.cgi?num=1215818229/0 ).  On September 29^th, the Dow dropped more than 700 points.  I was hooked.

Since then, I have devoted myself to studying the market both from the fundamental and technical sides.  In reality, what I have come to understand, especially as I have been on Twitter and interacting with other market enthusiast these last few months, is that it does not take any special training to understand the market's direction if one reads the market at its face value and worry less about the whys, the whys will reveal itself in time. 

Primary Market Influence

My primary market influences are Jesse Livermore and IBD’s Bill O’Neil; thus, I have tailored my use of financial astrology methodology to fit a growth methodology with an intermediate time-frame.

The Latest Update section defines in real-time our directional view of the market.  They are updated daily or weekly depending on the market's level of activity.  For example, the summer of 2012, when this blog started, the market was in months long consolidation period (sell in May and go away period), such that not much was really going on and so there was not much to write about.  We got busy in August when the general market broke out, beginning with our test of Apple (AAPL) breaking out.  In late September, we became bearish and started the Latest Update section at the suggestion of a friend for easy read.  We began by highlighting the potential risks and toppings of AAPL and Google (GOOG) before their sell-off began.

Financial Astrology/ Price and Time Analysis

Most technical analysts are familiar with Fibonacci analysis to define price targets (support/resistance).  By identifying important support and resistance levels, the technician can then reassess the trend using traditional TA tools to identify when a stock might be due for profit taking or instead blasting through the resistance for a continuation of the trend.  Financial astrology is effective for the time analysis half of this duo, as shown below and demonstrated in our August 14th hypothesis of the fall rally, http://www.mariarinehart.com/101040617.  The use of financial astrology to augment traditional TA with regard to timing can not only identify time targets as one would identify price targets, but also helps to dispel much of the daily noise by recognizing when the market is ripe for a change or a shift or simply when it not doing more than following the current trend. 

See our Analysis for GOOG at See It Market,

http://www.seeitmarket.com/a-taste-of-financial-astrology-google-time-and-price-analysis-goog-13222/#. 

9/17/2012 Dollar - Harami formation after an extended decline warns of possible reversal. (click to enlarge)

Intermarket Analysis

Intermarket analysis allows us to see what the market really believes about the news we are inundated with daily.  Actions of the dollar and oil at the first time target, September 18 (Pluto stations), confirmed our August 14^th hypothesis of when the fall uptrend would start to stall.   For example, action of the dollar on September 17, 2012 (http://www.mariarinehart.com/101040639), warned that the market at that time may not be giving much credence to QE3.  On September 18, we ended our long call on AAPL.  

For more on oil, see our Trader Planet article on OPEC and oil at 

http://www.traderplanet.com/articles/view/162776-opec-chart-signals-increased-oil-volatility-ahead/ .

Financial Astrology and Growth Stocks

Financial astrology is effective at identifying growth stocks.  Many people come to astrology during times of personal struggle.  These times of struggle also offer the catalyst for growth.  Companies made up of people respond in a similar fashion.  Identifying a potential catalyst offers another perspective to be used with your traditional fundamental and/or technical tools.

See our September 2012 article at Market Watch for YHOO,

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/great-columnist/2012/09/25/wakey-wakey-yahoo/. 

The Market is Not Right or Wrong, the Market is the Answer

This blog is my interpretation of the market’s dance.  We do not get it 100% right, but we are able to identify the trends and the big picture consistently, i.e. we were bearish in late September when others were still die-hard bulls and noted rising risk with AAPL and GOOG before they suffered their major losses.  Although, we originally hypothesized that the fall 2012 correction would be deeper because of our view then that we were at a late stage of the market cycle, we remained true to our philosophy that the market is the answer and cautiously acknowledged a market follow-thru by late November.  In December, we began following the developments in China, and early leaders such as autos and semiconductors pointing to a nascent global recovery. In the meantime, we remain cautious about what we term as the oil conundrum to a nascent recovery: rise in oil while indicative of global demand and growth, poses pressure to growth in a consumer driven economy, like the U.S., when it reaches levels that are unsustainable as we've seen time and again. However, the whys, as I mentioned earlier will often reveal themselves later, or we change our views as the market leads us to do so.  

If you need an analyst with my skills, please contact me via Twitter, @RinehartMaria.

***Finally this blog is for entertainment and learning only.  Thus, stocks mentioned are for ongoing analysis and demonstration of method shared in this blog only and not to be construed as recommendation to buy or sell. The blogger combines financial astrology with traditional TA and intermarket analysis.  Hope you enjoy, but please do your own homework and make your own mistakes and successes.  You can always follow us on Twitter @RinehartMaria.

Edited February 23, 2013 -